Tumblr, Social Popularity & Predicting the Oscars

Two women and two men holding Oscar statuettes

This year, on Oscar night, I wasn’t much interested in Who so and so was wearing…

Or which starlet would jump onto the wearisome bandwagon of posting not-so impromptu selfies on Twitter.

Instead, I was interested in finding out how well, if at all, social popularity could predict the winners (and losers) of Hollywood’s biggest night.

And the Winner Is…

This year, Team Tumblr elected to get into the Oscar prediction game.

They analyzed original posts, reblogs, searches, and likes from 2014 thru January 2015 to determine which films and actors generated the most in the way of social chatter and popularity.

Let’s see how well Tumblr’s crowdsourced predictions matched up, shall we?

– Best Actor –

Tumblr prediction - Benedict Cumberbatch, Oscar winner - Eddie Redmayne

Eddie Redmayne was ranked third on Tumblr for his portrayal of famed theoretical physicist, Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, but came out on top where it actually counts.

– Best Actress –

Tumblr prediction - Rosamund Pike, Oscar winner - Julienne Moore

Julienne Moore came in third in Tumblr’s rankings for Best Actress, but the 5-time Oscar nominee finally took home the gold for her masterful performance in Still Alice.

– Best Supporting Actor –

Tumblr Prediction - Mark Ruffalo, Oscar Winner - J.K. Simmons

Of the 5 nominees, J.K. Simmons was ranked dead last in Tumblr’s predictions for Best Supporting Actor, but he ended up taking home a golden statuette for his turn as a tyrannical music teacher in Whiplash.

– Best Supporting Actress –

Tumblr prediction - Emma Stone, Oscar winner - Patricia Arquette

Patricia Arquette was ranked fourth in Tumblr’s predictions for Best Supporting Actress, but the artistry of playing the same character over a 12 year period in the film, Boyhood, was most impressive to the voting members of the Academy.

– Best Animated Feature Film –

Tumblr prediction - Big Hero 6, Oscar winner - Big Hero 6

The people of Tumblr went gaga over Disney’s Big Hero 6 last year, as did the members of the Academy — making this Disney’s third Academy Award win three years in a row.

– Best Picture –

Tumblr prediction - The Grand Budapest Hotel, Oscar winner - Birdman

Tumblr ranked Birdman 6th out of the 8 Best Picture nominees, yet the cast and crew of Alejandro Iñárritu’s masterpiece took home the final award of the night.

And the Loser Is…

Well, you may be tempted to say Team Tumblr, seeing how they only nailed 1 out of 6 predictions.

But last week, Tumblr’s Oscar Predictions post garnered a nice blip of PR on Good Morning America, as well as nearly 4,000 likes and reblogs on Tumblr itself.

I’d say that’s a win-win.